At a military ceremony yesterday, Mexican Defense Minister Guillermo Galvan Galva described the national security situation in stark terms. “Clearly, in some sectors of the country public security
has been completely overrun,” said Galvan, adding that “it should be recognized that national security is seriously threatened.” He went on to say that organized crime in the country has managed to penetrate
not only society, but also the country’s state institutions.
Galvan also endorsed the military’s role in combating insecurity,
asserting that although they have a responsibility to acknowledge that
“there have been mistakes,” the armed forces have an “unrestricted”
respect for human rights…
Via U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, Bureau of Consular Affairs, “Travel Warning: Mexico.” 8 February 2012 .
The Department of State has issued this Travel Warning to inform
U.S. citizens about the security situation in Mexico. General
information on the overall security situation is provided immediately
below. For information on security conditions in specific regions of
Mexico, which can vary, travelers should reference the state-by-state
assessments further below.
This Travel Warning supersedes the Travel Warning for Mexico dated
April 22, 2011 to consolidate and update information about the
security situation and to advise the public of additional restrictions
on the travel of U.S. government (USG) personnel…
General Conditions:
…Gun battles between rival TCOs or with Mexican authorities have
taken place in towns and cities in many parts of Mexico, especially in
the border region. Gun battles have occurred in broad daylight on
streets and in other public venues, such as restaurants and clubs.
During some of these incidents, U.S. citizens have been trapped and
temporarily prevented from leaving the area. TCOs use stolen cars and
trucks to create roadblocks on major thoroughfares, preventing the
military and police from responding to criminal activity. The
location and timing of future armed engagements is unpredictable. We
recommend that you defer travel to the areas indicated in this Travel
Warning and to exercise extreme caution when traveling throughout the
northern border region…
State-by-State Assessment:
Below is a state-by-state assessment of security conditions
throughout Mexico divided into northern and southern regions. The
accompanying map will help in identifying individual locations.
Travelers should be mindful that even if no advisories are in effect
for a given state, crime and violence can occur anywhere. For general
information about travel conditions in Mexico, see our Country
Specific Information.
Northern Mexico
Baja California (north): Tijuana is a major city/travel
destination in the Northern portion of Baja California…You should
exercise caution in the northern state of Baja California,
particularly at night…
Chihuahua: Juarez and Chihuahua are the major cities/travel
destinations in Chihuahua…You should defer non-essential travel to the
state of Chihuahua…
Coahuila: You should defer non-essential travel to the state of
Coahuila. The State of Coahuila continues to experience high rates of
violent crimes and narcotics-related murders…
Durango: You should defer non-essential travel to the state of
Durango. Between 2006 and 2010, the number of narcotics-related
murders in the State of Durango increased dramatically…
Nuevo Leon: Monterrey is a major city/travel destination in Nuevo
Leon…You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Nuevo Leon,
except the metropolitan area of Monterrey where you should exercise
caution…
San Luis Potosi: You should defer non-essential travel to the
state of San Luis Potosi, except the city of San Luis Potosi where you
should exercise caution. The entire stretch of highway 57D in San
Luis Potosi and portions of the state east of highway 57D towards
Tamaulipas are particularly dangerous…
Sinaloa: Mazatlan is a major city/travel destination in
Sinaloa…You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Sinaloa
except the city of Mazatlan where you should exercise caution
particularly late at night and in the early morning. One of Mexico’s
most powerful TCOs is based in the state of Sinaloa. With the
exception of Ciudad Juarez, since 2006 more homicides have occurred in
the state’s capital city of Culiacan than in any other city in Mexico…
Sonora: Nogales and Puerto Peñasco are the major cities/travel
destinations in Sonora…You should defer non-essential travel between
the city of Nogales and the cities of Sonoyta and Caborca (which area
also includes the smaller cities of Saric, Tubutama, and Altar), defer
non-essential travel to the eastern edge of the State of Sonora which
borders the State of Chihuahua (all points along that border east of
the northern city of Agua Prieta and the southern town of Alamos),
defer non-essential travel within the state south of the city of
Ciudad Obregon with the exception of travel to Alamos (traveling only
during daylight hours and using only the Highway 15 toll road, aka
cuota, and Sonora State Road 162), and exercise caution when visiting
the coastal town of Puerto Peñasco…
Tamaulipas: Matamoros, Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, and Tampico are the
major cities/travel destinations in Tamaulipas…You should defer
non-essential travel to the state of Tamaulipas. All USG employees
are: prohibited from personal travel on Tamaulipas highways outside of
Matamoros, Reynosa and Nuevo Laredo due to the risks posed by armed
robbery and carjacking; may not frequent casinos and adult
entertainment establishments within these cities; and in Matamoros are
subject to a midnight to 6 a.m. curfew. Be aware of the risks posed
by armed robbery and carjacking on state highways throughout
Tamaulipas…
Zacatecas: You should defer non-essential travel to the state of
Zacatecas except the city of Zacatecas where you should exercise
caution. The regions of the state bordering Durango and Coahuila as
well as the cities of Fresnillo and Fresnillo-Sombrete and surrounding
area are particularly dangerous. The northwestern portion of the
state of Zacatecas has become notably dangerous and insecure.
Robberies and carjackings are occurring with increased frequency and
both local authorities and residents have reported a surge in observed
TCO activity. This area is remote, and local authorities are unable
to regularly patrol it or quickly respond to incidents that occur
there. Gun battles between criminal groups and authorities occur in
the area of the state bordering the state of Jalisco. There have also
been reports of roadblocks and false checkpoints on highways between
the states of Zacatecas and Jalisco…
Southern Mexico
Aguascalientes: You should defer non-essential travel to the areas
of the state that border the state of Zacatecas. The security
situation along the Zacatecas border continues to be unstable and gun
battles between criminal groups and authorities occur. Concerns
include roadblocks placed by individuals posing as police or military
personnel and recent gun battles between rival TCOs involving
automatic weapons.
Colima: Manzanillo is a major city/travel destination in
Colima…You should exercise extreme caution when traveling through the
areas of the state of Colima that border the state of Michoacán. You
should also exercise caution when traveling at night outside of cities
in the remaining portions of the state. The security situation along
the Michoacán border continues to be unstable and gun battles between
criminal groups and authorities occur. Concerns include roadblocks
placed by individuals posing as police or military personnel and
recent gun battles between rival TCOs involving automatic weapons.
Guerrero: Acapulco, Ixtapa, Zihuatanejo and Taxco are the major
cities/travel destinations in Guerrero…You should defer non-essential
travel to the northwestern and southern portions of the state (the
area west and south of the town of Arcelia on the border with Estado
de Mexico in the north and the town of Tlapa near the border with
Oaxaca), except for the cities of Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, and Ixtapa.
In those cities, you should exercise caution and stay within tourist
areas…
Jalisco Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta are the major
cities/travel destinations in Jalisco…You should defer non-essential
travel to areas of the state that border the states of Michoacán and
Zacatecas. You should also exercise caution when traveling at night
outside of cities in the remaining portions of this state…
Michoacán: Morelia is a major city/travel destination in
Michoacán…You should defer non-essential travel to the state of
Michoacán except the cities of Morelia and Lázaro Cardenas where you
should exercise caution. Flying into Morelia and Lázaro Cardenas, or
driving to Lázaro Cardenas via highway 200 from Zihuatanejo/Ixtapa,
are the recommended methods of travel. Attacks on Mexican government
officials, law enforcement and military personnel, and other incidents
of TCO-related violence, have occurred throughout Michoacán.
Morelos: Cuernavaca is a major city/travel destination in
Morelos…You should exercise caution in the state of Morelos due to the
unpredictable nature of TCO violence. Numerous incidents of
narcotics-related violence have occurred in the city of Cuernavaca, a
popular destination for U.S. students.
Nayarit: You should defer non-essential travel to all areas of the
state of Nayarit north of the city of Tepic as well as to the cities
of Tepic and Xalisco. The security situation north of Tepic and in
these cities is unstable and travelers could encounter roadblocks or
shootouts between rival criminals…
Veracruz: You should exercise caution when traveling in the state
of Veracruz. In recent months, the state of Veracruz has seen an
increase in violence among rival criminal organizations. In response,
the Government of Mexico has sent additional military and federal
police to the state to assist State security forces in implementing
operation “Veracruz Seguro” (Secure Veracruz) that focuses on
combating organized crime.
Analysis: Mexican Defense Minister Guillermo Galvan Galva’s statement
that some sectors of the country’s public security have been
completely overrun represents a rare and honest appraisal of what is
becoming an increasingly threatening situation to Mexican state
sovereignty [3]. To place this threat in perspective, the new U.S.
Department of State travel advisory for Mexico suggests that the
entire Northern half of Mexico is now witnessing criminal insurgencies
of such intensity that all of the states within it (except for Baja
California Sur) have travel warnings for U.S. citizens. Southern
Mexico is faring marginally better with travel advisories for
Aguascalientes, Colima, Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacán, Morelos,
Nayarit, and Veracruz while no travel advisories exist for Campeche,
Chiapas, Estado de Mexico, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Mexico City (also
known as the Federal District), Oaxaca, Puebla, Queretaro, Quintana
Roo, Tabasco, Tlaxcala, and Yucatan.
To place the U.S. Department of State advisory in geographic context,
see the following map of Mexican states with advisories labeled in
red:
SEE MAP IN ORIGINAL DOCUMENT
(http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-strategic-note-no-12)
Mexico City was once considered one of the most dangerous places in
the country but increasingly is considered a bastion of stability in
an otherwise troubled nation— with over 50,000 deaths attributed to
the criminal insurgencies since December 2006. This is to be expected
as the political elites and centralized government have expended
resources to increase security of the capitol city and surrounding
territories.
Of interest are the contradictory trends mentioned in the State
Department document. These were picked up by the Washington Post and
other major newspapers [4]:
The advisory does note that “millions of U.S. citizens safely
visit Mexico each year for study, tourism, and business, including
more than 150,000 who cross the border every day.” Still, it says,
U.S. travelers should be aware of Mexico’s efforts against “TCOs
[transnational crime organizations] which engage in narcotics
trafficking and other lawful activities” throughout the country.
Mexico is a country of 110 million people, so the odds of running
into trouble are low. The number of U.S. citizens reported to the
State Department as murdered in Mexico increased from 35 in 2007 to
120 in 2011.
Even the Mexican economy as defined by GDP, while only expected to
grow at 3.2% in 2012 (as opposed to 3.8% in 2011), is seemingly doing
well with business sentiments appearing optimistic in January 2012
[5].
What these contradictory trends suggest is that the spreading criminal
insurgencies taking place in Mexico, while threatening to the
legitimate federal government, are not necessarily bad for the overall
functioning of the Mexican economy [6]. Similar trends, on a micro
level, were noted in Miami, Florida during the Cocaine Wars of the
1970s and 1980s when much of the Miami skyline was built. Ultimately,
the illicit economy injected hundreds of millions of dollars, if not
more, into the formal economy. The same process is occurring in Mexico
except that is taking place yearly at the tens of billions of dollars
level and, as an aggregate over time, amounts to hundreds of billions
of dollars.
Still, this brings us back to Defense Minister Guillermo Galvan
Galva’s statement— Mexican national security is seriously threatened.
Or, more accurately, the sovereign state is seriously threatened and
is increasingly being decoupled from the globalized economy to which
Mexico has structurally reformed itself and acceded to NAFTA and other
international trade agreements. Terms used to identify such a
scenario—depending on where it exists on a continuum of who is in
charge—are Phillip Bobbitt’s ‘market state’, John Robb’s ‘hollow
state’, and my own ‘criminal state’ construct.
End Note(s):
1. http://insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/2204. For the
original Spanish article pertaining to the Defense Minister’s remarks
see Jorge Ramos Pérez, “Amenazada, seguridad del país: Galván.” El
Universal. Viernes 10 de febrero de 2012.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/829239.html.
2. http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_5665.html.
3. For additional analysis see Geoffrey Ramsey, “Mexico Official
Admits Some Areas Out of Govt Control.” In Sight: Organized Crime in
the Americas. 10 February 2012.
http://insightcrime.org/insight-latest-news/item/2204.
4. William Booth, “U.S. updates travel warning for Mexico.” The
Washington Post. 9 February 2012.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/us-updates-travel-warning-for-mexico/2012/02/09/gIQAwdGR2Q_story.html.
5. “Mexico Economic Indicators – February 2012.” CEB Views. February
2012. http://cebviews.com/2012/02/15/mexico-economic-indicators-%E2%80%93-february-2012/.
6. The GDP projections themselves may be called into question because
they were mentioned alongside an unemployment figure of 4.5% in
December 2011 which is totally unrealistic. Ibid.
